Obama Can Be Beaten

Gary Bauer, Contributing Author: Last week I expressed my chagrin that George Will and others in Washington were writing off the presidential contest as hopelessly lost, preferring instead to focus all our resources on the congressional contests. This is bad strategy and it is defeatist.

It is bad strategy because, as I noted, there are several swing states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia that will decide the presidency. These same states also have key Senate contests. If Obama wins these states, he will most likely win the White House. And if he has coattails, Democrats will likely win these Senate contests too. In presidential elections, the race for the White House drives turnout, and defeatism at the top of the ticket can lead to defeats down the rest of the ballot too.

But what is most perplexing to me is that there is no reason for conservatives to be so discouraged. Of course incumbent presidents have tremendous advantages. But they can and do lose elections. And this one in particular deserves to lose big -- just like Jimmy Carter! The good news is that the American people are not inclined to give Mr. Obama a second term.

Just consider the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Last month this poll gave Obama a net positive 50% to 46% job approval rating. It also found Obama leading Mitt Romney by six points. But after weeks of fawning news coverage about an improving economy, endless commentary about the dysfunctional GOP primary and non-issues like birth control, the March Post/ABC poll finds that Obama's numbers have flipped: 46% approve of his job performance and 50% disapprove. According to the Post's report, "a record number of Americans now give the president 'strongly' negative reviews." By the way, the Washington Post/ABC News poll has a history of oversampling Democrats.

Moreover, in head-to-head match-ups, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are very competitive against Obama. For all the talk about how the silly "birth control" debate is costing the GOP with independent voters, the Post/ABC finds: "The downshift is particularly notable among independents -- 57 percent of whom now disapprove -- and among white people without college degrees, with disapproval among this group now topping approval by a ratio of more than 2 to 1, at 66 versus 28 percent."

Consider how Obama fares on these measurements:

• The economy: 38% approve and 59% disapprove.
• Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons: 36% approve and 52% disapprove.
• The federal deficit: 32% approve and 63% disapprove.
• Gas prices: 26% approve and 65% disapprove.

Gallup recently asked whether Obama's presidency has been a success or failure. Half of those surveyed said it was a failure, while just 44% said it was a success. If gas prices keep going up, and given Obama's policies they likely will, he will be lucky to get 44% of the vote on Election Day!

Also Recall: "It's ObamaCare, Stupid"
Voters are clearly concerned about the economy and upset by high gas prices too. But ObamaCare could be the issue that costs Obama his job.

A recent academic study found that support for ObamaCare cost House Democrats roughly six points at the ballot box. More than the stimulus or cap and trade, ObamaCare was responsible for the Democrats' historic defeat and loss of 66 House seats in the 2010 elections.

The passage of time has not healed the Democrats' wounds. Last month a Gallup survey found that 72% of Americans -- and even 56% of Democrats -- felt that ObamaCare's individual mandate was unconstitutional. And the latest Rasmussen poll finds that likely voters still favor repealing ObamaCare by a double-digit margin of 53% to 42%.

These are horrible numbers for the president's signature accomplishment, which bears his name. But as some in the GOP seek to make the campaign all about the economy, are they giving up our most potent issue against Barack Obama in the fall campaign?

That was the question asked last week by the Wall Street Journal's Daniel Henninger. In a column entitled "It's Obamacare, Stupid," our friends at The Weekly Standard pick up the theme this week. Consider this excerpt:
"…the more Obamacare becomes an issue in the fall, the more it will highlight President Obama's liberalism in the minds of voters -- particularly independent voters. It correspondingly suggests that the more this election is focused simply on stewardship of the economy, the less Obama's big-government liberalism will be highlighted in voters' minds.

"In other words, should Mitt Romney win the Republican presidential nomination, he could surely run (and has given every indication that he would run) as a centrist who's focused on the economy. But by choosing to de-emphasize Obamacare, he would allow Obama to come across as more of a centrist as well. This would effectively take the GOP's best issue off the table. What's more, no issue will more starkly highlight the differences between the parties than Obamacare. Voters know that if Obama is reelected, Obamacare is here to stay. If the Republican wins, there is at least a very good shot at repeal. …

"The electability argument is ultimately about issues. Obamacare is Obama's greatest weakness. He is more likely to be defeated by a candidate who is willing to run against Obamacare as the epitome of big-government liberalism -- emphasizing its singular threat to Americans' liberty and their way of life."-------------
Gary Bauer is is a conservative family values advocate and serves as president of American Values and chairman of the Campaign for Working Families

---

Tags: Gary Bauer, Campaign for Working Families, defeat obama, Barack Obama, the economy, high gas prices, ObamaCare, lost reputation To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. Thanks!