Political Report: Election Countdown: The Mood, Measurements, And Mechanics
by Karlyn Bowman and Jennifer K. Marsico, AEI Report: As the countdown to the 2014 midterm elections continues, the October issue of AEI’s Political Report looks at public opinion on key electoral measures. This issue features the most recent polls on conventional election indicators and exit poll data from significant demographic groups in national House elections since 1986. We also include eight interesting indicators about the 2014 contests.
A sour mood: Sixty-seven percent of registered voters think things in the nation are on the wrong track (NBC/Wall Street Journal). One-third of registered voters think their representative deserves to be reelected, while 57 percent think it is time to give a new person a chance (NBC/Wall Street Journal).
Gauging the gaps: The gender and marriage gaps are permanent features of our politics. Fifty-three percent of men voted Republican in the 2012 House elections, while 55 percent of women voted Democrat. But the marriage gap is even larger than the gender gap. In the 2012 House elections, 56 percent of married voters voted Republican, and 62 percent of unmarried voters voted Democrat.
Punching below their demographic weight? While Hispanics are a fast-growing share of the population, they are not voting heavily yet. They were 17 percent of the US population in 2012, for example, but 10 percent of the electorate.
Party loyalty is real: In the 2012 House races, 94 percent of self-identified Republicans voted for Republican candidates, and 94 percent of Democrats remained loyal to their party. In the 2010 House races, 55 percent of Independents voted for Republican House candidates; 51 percent did in 2012.
What about the state-level scene? It looks more promising for the GOP, which currently controls both legislative chambers in 27 states compared to the Democrats’ 19. In addition to capitalizing on President Obama’s unpopularity, the Republican Party also recruited 588 new female candidates for state-level races, far exceeding its goal of 300, according to a report from ABC.
It’s anyone’s guess . . .: The results in Louisiana and Georgia may be too close to call on Election Night. Louisiana’s runoff would be December 6, and Georgia’s runoff would be January 6, 2015, if no candidate in either state gets above 50 percent. It’s also anyone’s guess which candidate will win each of 10 gubernatorial races the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups.
[Full report and charts (pdf)]
Tags: AEI, American Enterprise Institute, political report, 2014 election, election countdown, mood, measurements, nechanics To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
A sour mood: Sixty-seven percent of registered voters think things in the nation are on the wrong track (NBC/Wall Street Journal). One-third of registered voters think their representative deserves to be reelected, while 57 percent think it is time to give a new person a chance (NBC/Wall Street Journal).
Gauging the gaps: The gender and marriage gaps are permanent features of our politics. Fifty-three percent of men voted Republican in the 2012 House elections, while 55 percent of women voted Democrat. But the marriage gap is even larger than the gender gap. In the 2012 House elections, 56 percent of married voters voted Republican, and 62 percent of unmarried voters voted Democrat.
Punching below their demographic weight? While Hispanics are a fast-growing share of the population, they are not voting heavily yet. They were 17 percent of the US population in 2012, for example, but 10 percent of the electorate.
Party loyalty is real: In the 2012 House races, 94 percent of self-identified Republicans voted for Republican candidates, and 94 percent of Democrats remained loyal to their party. In the 2010 House races, 55 percent of Independents voted for Republican House candidates; 51 percent did in 2012.
What about the state-level scene? It looks more promising for the GOP, which currently controls both legislative chambers in 27 states compared to the Democrats’ 19. In addition to capitalizing on President Obama’s unpopularity, the Republican Party also recruited 588 new female candidates for state-level races, far exceeding its goal of 300, according to a report from ABC.
It’s anyone’s guess . . .: The results in Louisiana and Georgia may be too close to call on Election Night. Louisiana’s runoff would be December 6, and Georgia’s runoff would be January 6, 2015, if no candidate in either state gets above 50 percent. It’s also anyone’s guess which candidate will win each of 10 gubernatorial races the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups.
[Full report and charts (pdf)]
Tags: AEI, American Enterprise Institute, political report, 2014 election, election countdown, mood, measurements, nechanics To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
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