Will Boehner & House GOP Leadership Deal To Keep Government Open ?
At the beginning of the day, GOP leadership thought they had it all figured out. They’d give conservatives a separate bill to direct their anger at President Barack Obama over his executive action on immigration, then vote separately to fund most of the government for a year.
But as key leadership aides and lawmakers circled the House floor Tuesday afternoon, they encountered unexpected “headwinds,” several sources said. Hardline conservatives who have caused problems for leaders for years were not falling in line. These conservatives estimate their ranks are 30 to 40, enough to derail a vote.
That swelling Republican opposition gives Pelosi and her down-in-the-dumps House Democrats some unexpected power: the ability to rescue Boehner’s Republican Conference as Democrats have again and again in the big fights of the past three years.
So after a big election victory this fall in which Republicans took the Senate and strengthened their grip on the House, instead of Republicans uniting around their own leadership’s plan, they are about to risk giving more control to Pelosi’s shrinking Democratic Caucus. It makes Boehner allies cringe.
Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been coy about where she’ll fall — she and her allies have sent signals she’ll oppose the measure — but her circle says she’s mulling over her options. It’s clearly a touchy situation for Democrats. Steny Hoyer, Pelosi’s deputy, told POLITICO in the morning he might support the measure, but later in the day, he walked back his statement. [Emphisis added]
If Pelosi persuades enough of her members to vote against the funding bill, House Republicans will have to revert to a three-month, short-term extension for all government spending, setting up another funding fight in mid-March. That would mean that Republican leaders will be required to spend the first quarter of their first year in control of Capitol Hill tussling over government spending.
Next year, GOP leadership sources promise, they’ll ignore the far right and make progress with an easier group of lawmakers. Some Republicans are urging leadership to ignore the far right right now, and put a full-year funding bill on the floor, and allow members to vote their conscience.
But there’s a lot at stake over the next week for every Republican leader. If Boehner missteps, he could enrage conservatives whose votes he needs to remain speaker, come January. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California promised to end pointless legislative battles, and Congress is barreling headlong into yet another one. Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is taking some credit for this package, ran a leadership campaign based on bringing conservatives on board to leadership packages. But at this point, they’re peeling off, raising some early questions about Scalise’s effectiveness.
The opposition from within House GOP ranks is easy to explain: Conservatives want to put up a tougher fight with Obama over his executive order ending the deportation threat for millions of undocumented immigrants.
Conservatives fear that the Senate will ignore a pending House GOP bill — introduced by Rep. Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) — that says Obama cannot exempt groups of people from deportation, which would allow his executive order to stand unchallenged. [Emphisis added] Boehner and other party leaders had hoped to use the Yoho bill to mollify conservatives, while quickly passing a funding bill to take a shutdown out of the equation, while keeping a tight leash on DHS funding. But many conservatives think a three-month extension of funding for the Department of Homeland Security is too long. There are a good number of Republican hard-liners who want to fight in the early days of their new majority.
There are already more than a dozen Republican “no” votes on the leadership plan, which isn’t a problem in and of itself, although that dissent appears to be spreading.
And, until next Congress, Boehner can afford to lose only 18 votes until he needs Democratic support to pass a bill.
“It makes no sense to punt all, or most, of our appropriations until October,” said Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.), an ardent conservative.
GOP leadership thinks the far right is living in a dream world. The political climate will be only marginally better in 2015, but Obama will still be in the White House, and Congress will be hard-pressed to cobble a vetoproof majority in either chamber.
Plus, the Republicans on Capitol Hill believe the president will always win a shutdown fight — whether it’s this year or next year.
The House GOP opposition is inopportune for a plan that’s otherwise being well received on Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), himself an appropriator, said it would be “a big accomplishment if we can get a bill over here that would fund all the appropriation subcommittees except one.”
“It’s something I’ll look at very closely,” Reid said. “I think it’s a shame they’re not going to include a very important Homeland Security appropriations bill, but I understand why they’re doing it.” Senate Appropriations Chairman Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) is on board, as well. For Democrats, there is a win in voting for this bipartisan package. It would give Democrats say over spending until September 2015 — well after they lose their majority in the Senate.
But with Pelosi opposed, rank-and-file House Democrats are not yet enthusiastic over the GOP measure. The question is whether Pelosi can keep her own potential defections down in order to maximize her leverage over Boehner.
“It’s an implicit threat to shut down the government month to month, at least one government agency,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said. “Of course, the irony here is that this is the agency that is providing border security. So you’re going to send a message by shutting down the agency that provides border security? That makes no sense, it’s a political game.”
Rep. Joe Crowley, the New York Democrat who is the vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus, said, people are “very concerned” with limiting the duration of DHS funding.
Of course, Pelosi can turn almost any Democrat, and if she thinks it’s in her benefit to pass any of the three GOP bills, it could sail through Congress next week. But if the legislation moves significantly to the right — a real possibility — Democrats will flee.
For example, there’s already talk about embedding the Yoho language stating Obama cannot exempt people from deportation into the government funding bill. This would create a standoff with the Senate and House Democrats.
“This changes every day,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), a close Pelosi ally on the Appropriations Committee. “There is no pattern, there is no rhyme or reason. They say they’re going to do one thing, then they do something different the next day. We need to see what is being offered, and then we will look at it.”
The White House, meanwhile, has not weighed in. Pelosi huddled with White House chief of staff Denis McDonough late Tuesday. Republicans were waiting anxiously to hear the results from that confab.
But a source familiar with the meeting said the so-called cromnibus* didn’t come up.
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*Cromnibus is composed of two bills.
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