The Science Fictional Foundation Under Paul Krugman, Part One
Ralph Benko |
I met Asimov once, 40+ years ago, at a world science fiction convention. I even got him to autograph my Science Fiction Book Club copy of “The Foundation Trilogy.” This compilation of three novels is an SF classic. I, then and since, found it too dull to read in full. (Asimov’s I, Robot then was much more engaging to this long-ago SF geek. But nothing Asimov wrote really rivaled Heinlein’s early, nor Arthur C. Clarke’s best, novels.)
Prof. Paul Krugman, galactically more influential than me, declares that he found the the Foundation Trilogy his formative inspiration. Therein hangs a tale: one of technocracy, which he exalts, versus mere common sense.
Prof. Krugman’s reflections were published in the UK Guardian at the end of 2012: Paul Krugman: Asimov’s Foundation novels grounded my economics (apparently, a reprint of Prof. Krugman’s introduction to the Folio Society edition of the same). Prof. Krugman there wrote, “I grew up wanting to be Hari Seldon, using my understanding of the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation.”
There is an unsubtle irony to Prof. Krugman’s opening observation that:
. . . [T]he way Asimov’s invented societies recapitulate historical models … goes right along with his underlying conceit: the possibility of a rigorous, mathematical social science that understands society, can predict how it changes, and can be used to shape those changes.
F.A. Hayek, like Krugman, won — in 1974 — the Nobel Prize in Economics. John Cassidy, one of our era’s premier economic journalists, wrote, in the February 7, 2000 The New Yorker that “on the biggest issue of all, the vitality of capitalism, [Hayek] was vindicated to such an extent that it is hardly an exaggeration to refer to the twentieth century as the Hayek century.”
Contrasting Krugman with Hayek does not represent a meaningless exercise in sound and fury. Krugman vs. Hayek is a battle of the centuries.
Hayek’s Nobel lecture, The Pretence of Knowledge, contains perhaps the best refutation of Prof. Kruman’s pretensions of using “the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation.” Hayek:
It seems to me that this failure of the economists to guide policy more successfully is closely connected with their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures of the brilliantly successful physical sciences — an attempt which in our field may lead to outright error. It is an approach which has come to be described as the “scientistic” attitude — an attitude which, as I defined it some thirty years ago, “is decidedly unscientific in the true sense of the word, since it involves a mechanical and uncritical application of habits of thought to fields different from those in which they have been formed.” I want today to begin by explaining how some of the gravest errors of recent economic policy are a direct consequence of this scientistic error.
One side in this war — let us, for the sake of taxonomic convenience, arbitrarily call them the “Axis Powers”– dominates federal agencies, academe, and the elite news media. To pick one example at random: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has a reported 300 PhD economists in its headquarters staff alone. That really is exemplary of the Axis perspective. The Axis believes, as a matter of faith, in mathematical modeling. Krugman might well be the “Lord Haw-Haw” of these contemporary Axis powers. Bring it on, Paul.
The other side — let us, arbitrarily, call them the “Allies” — roughly speaking is represented by certain thought leaders in the Congress such as Joint Economic Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, and center right policy institutes such as Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute, Atlas Network, and, of course, American Principles in Action (which I professionally advise). Let us also praise a few maverick academics such as Profs. Lawrence White and Brian Domitrovic. These professors, shamelessly, wallow in mere data and rigorous analysis rather than hewing to prevailing fashion.
The Allies are more interested in the correlations between policy, job creation, and equitable prosperity (or the erosion thereof) than in the correct pronunciation of Shibboleth. The Allies tend to align with Hayek.
Let it be noted in passing that the great Canadian public intellectual John Ralston Saul, in Voltaire’s Bastards: The Dictatorship of Reason in the West, effectively stripped the bark from the pretensions of the social engineers. As noted at the Library of Economics and Liberty,
Paul Krugman long ago left the twilight zone of Neo-Keynesianism to boldly go where no man has gone before. There isn’t a better “sciencefictionomist” than Prof. Krugman. That said, a coin has two sides. Sciencefictionomics has far from won its war on common sense.
[Continued: Part 2] ...
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Ralph Benko is senior advisor, economics, to American Principles in Action’s Gold Standard 2012 Initiative, and a contributor to he ARRA News Service. The article which first appeared in Forbes was submitted for reprint by the author.
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