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One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -- Plato (429-347 BC)

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Analysis of New Hampshire Results

ARRA News Service reported the New Hampshire results here and here. Below is Gary Bauer's analysis of those results. News reports are hinting that two Republican candidate, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, may announce their suspensions of their campaigns later today.

by Gary Bauer, Contributing Author: The Republicans: With few exceptions, the results essentially mirrored the polls. Trump has consistently led the New Hampshire polls since July. Recent polls indicating a surge for Ohio Governor John Kasich were spot on. Here's my analysis:
  • Since 1976 no one has won the GOP nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. If that pattern holds, then either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the nominee.
  • GOP primary turnout set a record, just like in Iowa. Clearly, Republicans are excited about the 2016 elections.
  • According to one analysis, the Bush campaign and its associated Super PACs spent more than $36 million in New Hampshire, nearly $1,200 per vote, once again vastly outspending his opponents while underperforming them at the ballot box. Ted Cruz got the best bang for the buck, spending just $18 per vote.
  • Exit poll results should put to rest the left-wing narrative that Trump supporters are ignorant, knuckle-dragging Neanderthals. Trump carried college-educated voters and he even won among those with post-graduate degrees.
  • Here's something that should worry Republican elites: 64% of GOP primary voters said they supported a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. When Trump suggested a temporary ban after the San Bernardino attacks, some GOP candidates and leaders rushed to condemn him. Some even said, as Obama did, "That's not who we are."
  • Nearly half of Republican primary voters (47%) said they felt betrayed by Republican politicians.
The arrogant disconnect of the political class and its utter failure to confront Barack Obama in any meaningful way, in my view, largely explains Trump's success.

Now, those mortified by the notion that Donald Trump may win the GOP nomination can take heart in the fact that two-thirds of Republicans voted for other candidates. A 35% win is a win, but it's hardly a resounding endorsement.

The quicker the race narrows to just a few candidates, the greater the likelihood voters will coalesce around an alternative to Trump.

Ted Cruz finished a respectable third, given that the New Hampshire electorate is not nearly as conservative as Iowa. (In fact, a recent Gallup study finds New Hampshire is America's least religious state.) Cruz is now the clear front runner for the "conservative lane."

He has the resources to run a national campaign and is well-positioned to compete in upcoming multi-state primaries. This is a major reason why I endorsed him.

John Kasich's strong showing scrambles the race for the "establishment lane." Chris Christie has returned to New Jersey and is reportedly going to drop out. And, having finished ahead of Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush certainly won't drop out now.

Speaking of Marco Rubio, I thought he did a good job of taking full responsibility for his fifth place showing. He told supporters, "Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It's on me. It's on me. I did not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this: That will never happen again." That is smart politics and it says a lot about him.

The Democrats: Last night Bernie Sanders made history as the first American Jew to win a presidential primary. However, supporters of Israel are unlikely to be saying, "Mazel Tov, Bernie." He despises the Jewish state! Sanders recently said that he gets advice on Middle East policy from the left-wing, anti-Israel group J Street and James Zogby of the Arab American Institute.

In 1992, Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire to a neighboring state's senator. He spun his second place showing as a victory, declaring himself "The Comeback Kid." There was none of the Clinton magic for Hillary last night. There were no celebrations; there was no way to spin her crushing defeat. Here are some quick observations:
  • Sanders' victory was resounding -- 60% to 38%.
  • Clinton lost every demographic except those over 65 and those making more than $200,000 a year.
  • Women, evidently willing to risk hell, voted for Sanders 55% to 44%. You may recall that former Secretary of State Madeline Albright suggested a few days ago that there was a "special place in hell" for women who didn't vote for Hillary.
  • Millennials voted for Sanders by communist margins -- in excess of 80%.
  • Asked to name their top candidate quality, a plurality (34%) said "honesty." Of the voters who said honesty was most important to them, they broke 91% to 5% for Sanders.
Some pundits are attempting to spin Hillary's loss by dismissing New Hampshire as "Sanders' backyard." But that doesn't hold up. Let's back up a year and look at the polls then.

Four polls were conducted last February, and Hillary Clinton enjoyed an average lead of 40 points! Sanders was registering just 10% against the "inevitable" nominee, Hillary Clinton.

When Hillary ran before in 2008, she won the New Hampshire primary with 39% of the vote and just over 112,000 votes. Now, after four years as Obama's secretary of state, she got 38% and just under 91,000 votes.

These results are unmistakable: Hillary Clinton is an incredibly weak candidate. The likelihood of an independent bid by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg got a big boost last night.

Looking Ahead: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will face each other in a debate tomorrow night. The next battle for the Democrat nomination will take place in Nevada on February 20th.

The next Republican debate is February 13th, followed by the South Carolina primary on February 20th.
Gary Bauer is a conservative family values advocate and serves as president of American Values and chairman of the Campaign for Working Families

Tags: Gary Bauer, Campaign for Working Families, New Hampshire, analysis of results, New Hampshire, 2016 Presidential Primary, republican candidates, democrat candidates To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
Posted by Bill Smith at 1:32 PM - Post Link


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