Understanding Violence & Civilian Casualty Rates in Iraq

by Kirk Johnson, Ph.D.,Visiting Fellow, The Heritage Foundation: General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have focused much of their discussion this week on population security. Indeed, civilian casualty rates are a very important measure of success in Iraq. Though some critics of U.S. Iraq strategy focus on rates of sectarian violence, broader measures present a better picture of the situation in Iraq. These broader measures show that the "surge" has been a success in reducing civilian casualties and improving overall security in Iraq. . . . the media have been keenly interested in population security measures, with a number of articles being written in advance of this week's hearings. Naturally, there will continue to be a great deal of discussion regarding population security during this week's hearings. In order to cut through the clutter, policymakers and the public at large should focus on the following three issues . . .

Policymakers and the public should focus on how the surge has improved population security in Iraq, defined broadly. Focusing only on sectarian violence misses 35 percent to 65 percent of civilian casualties nationwide and nearly all the violence in homogeneous areas of Iraq. When a broad measure of population security is used, total civilian casualties have dropped by about 20 percent between January and August 2007. Whether or not this nationwide reduction in violence will allow needed political progress in Iraq is still an open question. [Read Report] [Kirk A. Johnson, served as Deputy Director for Assessments in the Joint Strategic Planning and Assessment office at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad in 2006–2007.]

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