GOP Wins Special Elections - What Happeded?

Gary Bauer, Campaign for Working Families: Two special elections were held yesterday for House seats that became vacant after the unexpected passing of Republicans Rep. Paul Gillmor (OH) and Jo Ann Davis (VA). While both are considered safe Republican seats, there was a lot of pre-election prognostication suggesting that one or both seats might be won by the Democrats.

A host of reasons were offered up as to why the seats were in jeopardy - ranging from continued fallout of the 2006 elections, poor GOP fundraising, depressed turnout and a particularly bad environment in Ohio. In fact, the Ohio race saw a very bitter primary battle for the Republican nomination, and polling done in recent days showed the Republican nominee, Bob Latta, trailing by four points. Democrats poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to tie Latta to previous Ohio government scandals.

In the Virginia contest, national Democrats were less active (directing their resources to the Ohio race), but state Democrats were very involved. Governor Tim Kaine held a last minute fundraiser for the Democrat nominee, and former Democrat governor and 2008 Senate candidate Mark Warner also campaigned for him. Kaine argued that Democrats were on the rise in Virginia, fresh off the 2007 state legislative victories that saw Democrats capture the Virginia State Senate.

A lot of folks last night were holding their breath as the returns came in. Would the conservative base turnout? Or had they turned their backs on the GOP? Would the Democrats ride a wave of anti-war frustration and economic anxiety to victory? Well, I'm proud to report that liberals across the country were depressed this morning. Republican Rob Wittman won the race in Virginia's 1st Cong. District with 61%, while Republican Bob Latta won the race in Ohio's 5th Cong. District with 56%.

Granted, these are normally safe GOP seats. But given the atmosphere nationally and in these states individually, it is very telling to me that both Republican candidates pulled double-digit victories. If there was any semblance of demoralization among the conservative base or a rising liberal tide, Latta could have lost or, at a minimum, the races could have been much closer with very narrow GOP victories. So what explains these large margins of victory? It could be that the conservatives and Independents have seen enough of the liberal majority in Congress to realize that they don't want to make Nancy Pelosi's job any easier. But political observers are also pointing to something else.

Consider this quote from one news report this morning: "Republican officials immediately pointed to the issue of immigration, an increasingly pivotal theme in contests across the nation as well as in the presidential primary race, as a key factor in their Ohio victory. A tough stand on immigration also was seen as forcing an unexpectedly close race in a September special election in a solidly Democratic Massachusetts district that was ultimately won by Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-MA) who had made her opposition to the war in Iraq a key campaign issue."

Speaking of Iraq, today's Washington Times reports that Democrats have a new problem to contend with. The radical group Code Pink is taking steps to launch a new effort that will specifically target Democrat leaders in Congress who are not anti-war enough. Yesterday, the co-founder of Code Pink, Ms. Medea Benjamin, said, "We are disgusted with all of them. We were in Congress today saying, 'Close Gitmo,' and I changed my sign to say, 'Close Congress.'"

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