States Cheat on Graduation Rates

Dropout Figures Don't Add Up; States Cheat on Graduation RatesEducation Reporter: Over the past few years, discrepancies have come to light between states' actual graduation and dropout rates and the ones they report to the federal government to comply with the No Child Left Behind Act. North Carolina, for example, used a new formula to recalculate its graduation rate from 95% in 2006 to a more accurate — and disturbing — 68% in 2007.

A few states, such as Mississippi, California, and Delaware, currently maintain two sets of figures on dropouts, reporting the better numbers to Washington and using the worse ones in policy discussions and dropout prevention campaigns at home. Mississippi reports an 87% graduation rate for NCLB purposes, but admits a rate of around 63% based on a different formula.

In 2001, the Manhattan Institute's Jay P. Greene estimated that the national graduation rate was 15 percentage points lower than previously estimated. Greene's estimate compared the number of students enrolled in 8th grade with the number of diplomas issued to graduating 12th-grade students. This straightforward formula calculated that just 71% of American students finish school, compared to the federal government's estimate of 86%. . . .

The EPE Research Center and the America's Promise Alliance issued a report on graduation rates at the end of March. The report estimated the overall graduation rate at 70% (74% of female students and 66% of male students graduate). Rates also differ by race, with 80% of Asian-Americans, 76% of whites, 58% of Hispanics and 50% of African-Americans finishing school.

Suburban districts graduate 74.9% of their students, while rates in districts in large cities are shockingly low. "Our analysis finds that graduating from high school in American's largest cities amounts, essentially, to a coin toss," the study reported. "Only about one-half (52%) of students in the principal school systems of the 50 largest cities complete high school with a diploma." Rates in many cities are much lower than half: 40% in Cleveland, 35% in Baltimore, and just 25% in Detroit. . . . [Read More]

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