Polling Bad News for Blanche Lincoln
Bill Smith, ARRA Editor: When polling numbers shows a senior senator in difficulty against potential candidates over a year out from the election, the news is bad news for that senator. And that is what is being projected for Arkansas' U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln who is up for election in 2010 and has been feverishly raising funds and avoiding the public at town halls and TEA Parties in Arkansas. Public Policy Polling latest polling data released August 26th shows that Obama campaigning for Sen. Lincoln in in Arkansas would sink her race. While Barack Obama's National approval rating of 52%, in Arkansas, Obama has only a 40% approval rating. And that is expected to continue to fall in Arkansas. In fact, the polling numbers showed that a majority of voters in Arkansas think Rush Limbaugh has a superior vision for the country than Barack Obama.
Blanche Lincoln's approval rating has dropped 9% since March. Currently, Lincoln has 36% approval rating and a 44% disapproving rating of the job she’s doing. Currently, with no candidates formally filed for office against her, she's in a statistical tie against three potential Republican opponents. And there are as many as eight candidates considering running against her.
Gilbert Baker leads her 42-40, Curtis Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Tom Cotton trails Lincoln slightly 40-39. The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's unfavorable standing than that of the Republicans at this time.
“You couldn’t get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is going to be a very closely contested race if the eventual Republican nominee does a good job of raising money.
Other indicators of running against Lincoln is that 53% of the people polled were women. In addition, 48% of those polled identified themselves as conservative, and 39% as moderate, leaving 12% of her liberal friends. At the beginning of 2009, voters returned Senator Pryor to a new six term without opposition; however, , his approval rating, although higher than Lincoln, is now only 47% with a disapproval rating of 32%. The voters disappointment with a previously considered "more conservative" Sen. Pryor may weigh heavily on voters in 2010 when considering returning a more liberal Senator Blanche Lincoln .
There is a growing "vote the bums" out feeling among the voters in Arkansas. Also, in Arkansas, continued open endorsement and support of Senator Lincoln by incumbent State constitutional officers (Governor, Lt. Governor, etc.) may place them at risk in 2010 if viable conservative candidates step forward to oppose them.
As summarized by Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling, "Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers.. . . Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it."
Tags: Arkansas, Barack Obama, Blanche Lincoln, Curtis Coleman, Gilbert Baker, polling, Senator, Tom Cotton To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. Thanks!
Blanche Lincoln's approval rating has dropped 9% since March. Currently, Lincoln has 36% approval rating and a 44% disapproving rating of the job she’s doing. Currently, with no candidates formally filed for office against her, she's in a statistical tie against three potential Republican opponents. And there are as many as eight candidates considering running against her.
Gilbert Baker leads her 42-40, Curtis Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Tom Cotton trails Lincoln slightly 40-39. The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's unfavorable standing than that of the Republicans at this time.
“You couldn’t get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is going to be a very closely contested race if the eventual Republican nominee does a good job of raising money.
Other indicators of running against Lincoln is that 53% of the people polled were women. In addition, 48% of those polled identified themselves as conservative, and 39% as moderate, leaving 12% of her liberal friends. At the beginning of 2009, voters returned Senator Pryor to a new six term without opposition; however, , his approval rating, although higher than Lincoln, is now only 47% with a disapproval rating of 32%. The voters disappointment with a previously considered "more conservative" Sen. Pryor may weigh heavily on voters in 2010 when considering returning a more liberal Senator Blanche Lincoln .
There is a growing "vote the bums" out feeling among the voters in Arkansas. Also, in Arkansas, continued open endorsement and support of Senator Lincoln by incumbent State constitutional officers (Governor, Lt. Governor, etc.) may place them at risk in 2010 if viable conservative candidates step forward to oppose them.
As summarized by Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling, "Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers.. . . Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it."
Tags: Arkansas, Barack Obama, Blanche Lincoln, Curtis Coleman, Gilbert Baker, polling, Senator, Tom Cotton To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. Thanks!
Posted by Bill Smith at 2:21 PM - Post Link
11 Comments:
Republican Party of Arkansas Chairman Doyle Webb has released the following statement in response to the Public Policy Polling survey which shows Sen. Blanche Lincoln with an approval rating of just 36%, with 44% of voters in Arkansas disapproving of the job she’s doing:
“It’s obvious that Sen. Lincoln is vulnerable, and her approval rating of just 36% reflects the fact that she no longer represents the values of Arkansans. It's clear the people of Arkansas reject the liberal agenda she supports in Washington D.C. Recent health care town halls have shown us that Arkansans want leaders who protect their interests, not control their lives.”
Time for big changes in 2010
Lincoln is gone--I hope.
We have to hit the streets and campaign AGAINST her....
If you guys can beat her, we are all gong to be celebrating. After 2006/2008, I am ready for a celebration in Nov 2010 when we take Back the House and pick up Senate seats. Time to send the DemocRATs to the Unemployment line.
Get Off Your Sofa and Get Active !! SAVE OUR COUNTRY
Comment Received via Email from Blanche Lincoln's Office Aug 28, 2009
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In his recent post, Dr. Smith states that Senator Lincoln has been “avoiding the public at town halls.” I wanted to make sure that both of you knew about Senator Lincoln’s three town halls scheduled next week. The information has been posted to her website http://www.lincoln.senate.gov/newsroom/2009-08-18-1.cfm since August 18 and was sent to Lincoln eLetter subscribers that same day.
I’d also note that Senator Lincoln has averaged more than 10 public, town hall-style meetings per year since she was first sworn in as a U.S. Senator in 1999. These open forums have focused on Social Security, the Medicare prescription drug program, education, veterans and National Guard, and many more issues. Earlier this year, in anticipation that Congress would act on health care reform in July, the Senator held a series of rural health care public forums tour across the state in April, as well as open meetings during the July work period.
Katie
(202) 224-5455 direct
Katie_laning@lincoln.senate.gov
Wow. I wonder how many Arkansas residents attending the Tea Party and are upset with Sen. Lincoln are following her e-newsletter?
As identified in this New York Times article dated August 16, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/17/health/policy/17lincoln.html: . . . Nobody got in Senator Blanche Lincoln’s face about health care last week. That was because she did not let them.
While her colleagues subjected themselves to brickbats at town-hall-style meetings, Ms. Lincoln filled the first week of the Senate recess with controlled events before respectful crowds, like business forums and civic club luncheons. The closest demonstrators got to Arkansas’s senior senator were the clusters of people who waved placards from roadsides as her car zipped by.
"The cautious scheduling, avoiding any risk of an ugly videotaped confrontation, underscored the political hazards of the health care debate for centrist Democrats like Ms. Lincoln, who faces re-election next year in a state where Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, defeated President Obama by 20 percentage points. . . .
"But her stand on health care could prove even more defining. Her office phones are ringing off the hook, with most callers expressing displeasure. Even at her well-mannered events, angst was evident.
At a Lions Club lunch in Malvern last week, Barry Ballard, 64, told Ms. Lincoln that his doctor was dropping him when he turned 65 because Medicare did not pay enough. “Are we going to run into another government-operated program that the doctors won’t support?” Mr. Ballard asked. . . .
Last week, the state’s Republican leadership won news coverage by criticizing her for not holding open meetings, as well as for her comment to reporters in an Aug. 6 conference call that those who had disrupted such meetings in other states were “un-American and disrespectful.” . . .
In the interview, she suggested that the raucous nature of the town-hall-style sessions had made them counterproductive.
“If people genuinely wanted to have a constructive conversation, then that would be a different thing.” she said. “But that has not been what we’ve seen.” . . .
In the interview, she suggested that the raucous nature of the town-hall-style sessions had made them counterproductive.
“If people genuinely wanted to have a constructive conversation, then that would be a different thing.” she said. “But that has not been what we’ve seen.” . . .
Her position on a new government health plan for the uninsured has been difficult to pin down. She wrote in an op-ed column on July 9 that insurance options should include “a quality, affordable public plan or nonprofit plan that can accomplish the same goals.” A month later, in an interview with a blogger, she said she “certainly would not support a public government-funded plan” because it was “not a competitive choice.”
Two days later, she said in an interview that she was “open to a public plan as long as it’s competitive,” meaning it could compete for market share without government financial support. . . .
Imagine when town hall meetings are scripted and held on college campus where they can be packed by union members and students let out of class, parking is limited and campus crowd control limits free speech, it is evident that Sen Lincoln is not open to meeting with the voters on main street Arkansas.
The prior TEA Party Rallies and Citizen Town hall meetings in Arkansas have been held when and where it was convenient for people to meet. Lincoln although invited has not attended attend. Even in the heart of the Ozarks, up in Baxter County, over 2500 people gathered at the last Tea Party on July 4th and 700 people attended a Town Hall on Aug 22nd on a public square across from Rep. Marion Berry's office.
Most politicians would kill for the opportunity to visit with this many people. But where was Lincoln? She was MIA - missing in action!
Anyone wishing to attend one of Lincoln's controlled scripted and limited speech town hall meetings, her is their schedule:
The following is Lincoln’s schedule from her website for September 1-4:
Tuesday, September 1 — Little Rock
12:00 p.m., Keynote speaker, Donald W. Reynolds Institute on Aging’s Elder Law Task Force Conference. Lincoln’s bipartisan “Elder Justice Act,” first introduced in 2005, aims to protect seniors from abuse and exploitation by significantly strengthening prevention, detection, monitoring, and intervention of elder mistreatment and neglect. Lincoln is a member of the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Special Committee on Aging. The Reynolds Institute on Aging, UAMS Campus, 629 Jack Stephens Drive, Little Rock (Lower Level Atrium).
7:30 p.m., AARP Arkansas Teletown Hall. At the invitation of AARP Arkansas, Lincoln will join AARP Arkansas State Director Maria Reynolds-Diaz for a Q&A session on health care reform with Arkansas’s AARP members.
Wednesday, September 2 — North Little Rock, Russellville
8:30-9:00 a.m., KARN News Radio’s “First News with Bob Steel.” Lincoln will join host Bob Steel for a one-on-one interview and take questions from callers. KARN live line call-in number: 501-433-0092, or 1-800-264-0092.
10:00 a.m., Grand Opening of Pulaski Technical College Aerospace Technology Center. 1600 West Maryland Avenue, North Little Rock.
12:30-2:30 p.m., Russellville Town Hall Meeting. Arkansas Tech University’s Doc Bryan Auditorium. 1605 Coliseum Drive, Room 109, Russellville. Doors open at 11:30 a.m.
Thursday, September 3 —P ine Bluff
3:30-5:30 p.m., Pine Bluff Town Hall Meeting. University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff’s Fine Arts Building. 1200 North University, Pine Bluff. Doors open at 2:30 p.m.
7:00 p.m., Featured speaker, Jefferson County Farm Bureau annual meeting. Pine Bluff Country Club, 1100 Country Club Lane.
Friday, September 4 — Jonesboro
9:00-11:00 a.m., Jonesboro Town Hall Meeting. Arkansas State University’s Fowler Center. 201 Olympic Drive, Jonesboro. Doors open at 8:00 a.m.
3:30-4:00 p.m., KARN News Radio’s Dave Elswick Show. Lincoln will join host Dave Elswick for a one-on-one interview and take questions from callers. KARN live line call-in number: 501-433-0092, or 1-800-264-0092.
I truly hope she gets ousted out of office!
You and me both exemployee!
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