Senate Battleground Polls Show Republican Momentum

U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton Up A Whopping 13 Pts
 Over Sen. Mark Pryor ~ Arkansas Poll

by Robert Schroeder, MarkertWatch: Here’s the good news for Republicans hoping to take over the Senate: Fresh polls released Thursday show a couple of their candidates with leads in key races.

The not-so-good news? Analysts are newly warning that control of the chamber won’t be decided next week. So it’s too early for the GOP to declare victory.

The newest surveys show a lead for Republican Cory Gardner in Colorado and for the GOP’s Tom Cotton in Arkansas, two battleground states that could help decide Senate control in the midterm elections. A Quinnipiac poll has Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall by seven points. In the new Arkansas Poll, meanwhile, Cotton is ahead of opponent Mark Pryor by a whopping 13 points. Pryor, like Udall, is a sitting Democratic senator.

Gardner’s lead widened by two points since the last Quinnipiac poll. The Arkansas Poll is an annual survey, and is the best showing for Cotton of recent polls, including an NBC/Marist survey taken through Oct. 23 that showed the Republican congressman leading by just two points.

Republicans need a net six seats to win control of the Senate on Nov. 4, and prevailing in these two races would help clinch victory.

Election forecasts from the Upshot, fivethirtyeight.com and <Sabato’s Crystal Ball all point to a Republican takeover.

“While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate,” wrote Larry Sabato and his team on Thursday. “Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber.”

Note that “eventually.” As they write, there’s a “decent chance” Senate control won’t be decided on Election Night, given likely runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia.

Meanwhile, the newest polls for a couple other battleground states show that those contests will bear watching until the last minute. A SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday puts independent Greg Orman ahead of Republican Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas by just two points.

In Iowa, Joni Ernst leads Democrat Bruce Braley by four points in a Quinnipiac poll published Wednesday. That doesn’t spell guaranteed victory for Republican Ernst. But the poll does show momentum for the Iowa state senator. In the same survey on Oct. 23, her lead was two points.
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Robert Schroeder is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington. Follow him on Twitter @mktwrobs.

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