ARRA News Service
ARRA News Service facebook page  
News for social, fiscal & national security conservatives who believe in God, family & the USA. Upholding the rights granted by God & guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution, traditional family values, "republican" principles / ideals, transparent & limited "smaller" government, free markets, lower taxes, due process of law, liberty & individual freedom. All content approval rests with the ARRA News Service Editor. Opinions are those of the authors. While varied positions are reported, beliefs & principles remain fixed. No revenue is generated for this site - no paid ads accepted - no payments for articles. Fair Use doctrine is posted & used.
Editor/Founder: Bill Smith, Ph.D. [aka: OzarkGuru & 2010 AFP National Blogger of the Year]
Contact: (Pub. Since July, 2006)
    Home Page

One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -- Plato (429-347 BC)

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Analysis of New Hampshire Results

ARRA News Service reported the New Hampshire results here and here. Below is Gary Bauer's analysis of those results. News reports are hinting that two Republican candidate, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, may announce their suspensions of their campaigns later today.

by Gary Bauer, Contributing Author: The Republicans: With few exceptions, the results essentially mirrored the polls. Trump has consistently led the New Hampshire polls since July. Recent polls indicating a surge for Ohio Governor John Kasich were spot on. Here's my analysis:
  • Since 1976 no one has won the GOP nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. If that pattern holds, then either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be the nominee.
  • GOP primary turnout set a record, just like in Iowa. Clearly, Republicans are excited about the 2016 elections.
  • According to one analysis, the Bush campaign and its associated Super PACs spent more than $36 million in New Hampshire, nearly $1,200 per vote, once again vastly outspending his opponents while underperforming them at the ballot box. Ted Cruz got the best bang for the buck, spending just $18 per vote.
  • Exit poll results should put to rest the left-wing narrative that Trump supporters are ignorant, knuckle-dragging Neanderthals. Trump carried college-educated voters and he even won among those with post-graduate degrees.
  • Here's something that should worry Republican elites: 64% of GOP primary voters said they supported a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. When Trump suggested a temporary ban after the San Bernardino attacks, some GOP candidates and leaders rushed to condemn him. Some even said, as Obama did, "That's not who we are."
  • Nearly half of Republican primary voters (47%) said they felt betrayed by Republican politicians.
The arrogant disconnect of the political class and its utter failure to confront Barack Obama in any meaningful way, in my view, largely explains Trump's success.

Now, those mortified by the notion that Donald Trump may win the GOP nomination can take heart in the fact that two-thirds of Republicans voted for other candidates. A 35% win is a win, but it's hardly a resounding endorsement.

The quicker the race narrows to just a few candidates, the greater the likelihood voters will coalesce around an alternative to Trump.

Ted Cruz finished a respectable third, given that the New Hampshire electorate is not nearly as conservative as Iowa. (In fact, a recent Gallup study finds New Hampshire is America's least religious state.) Cruz is now the clear front runner for the "conservative lane."

He has the resources to run a national campaign and is well-positioned to compete in upcoming multi-state primaries. This is a major reason why I endorsed him.

John Kasich's strong showing scrambles the race for the "establishment lane." Chris Christie has returned to New Jersey and is reportedly going to drop out. And, having finished ahead of Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush certainly won't drop out now.

Speaking of Marco Rubio, I thought he did a good job of taking full responsibility for his fifth place showing. He told supporters, "Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It's on me. It's on me. I did not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this: That will never happen again." That is smart politics and it says a lot about him.

The Democrats: Last night Bernie Sanders made history as the first American Jew to win a presidential primary. However, supporters of Israel are unlikely to be saying, "Mazel Tov, Bernie." He despises the Jewish state! Sanders recently said that he gets advice on Middle East policy from the left-wing, anti-Israel group J Street and James Zogby of the Arab American Institute.

In 1992, Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire to a neighboring state's senator. He spun his second place showing as a victory, declaring himself "The Comeback Kid." There was none of the Clinton magic for Hillary last night. There were no celebrations; there was no way to spin her crushing defeat. Here are some quick observations:
  • Sanders' victory was resounding -- 60% to 38%.
  • Clinton lost every demographic except those over 65 and those making more than $200,000 a year.
  • Women, evidently willing to risk hell, voted for Sanders 55% to 44%. You may recall that former Secretary of State Madeline Albright suggested a few days ago that there was a "special place in hell" for women who didn't vote for Hillary.
  • Millennials voted for Sanders by communist margins -- in excess of 80%.
  • Asked to name their top candidate quality, a plurality (34%) said "honesty." Of the voters who said honesty was most important to them, they broke 91% to 5% for Sanders.
Some pundits are attempting to spin Hillary's loss by dismissing New Hampshire as "Sanders' backyard." But that doesn't hold up. Let's back up a year and look at the polls then.

Four polls were conducted last February, and Hillary Clinton enjoyed an average lead of 40 points! Sanders was registering just 10% against the "inevitable" nominee, Hillary Clinton.

When Hillary ran before in 2008, she won the New Hampshire primary with 39% of the vote and just over 112,000 votes. Now, after four years as Obama's secretary of state, she got 38% and just under 91,000 votes.

These results are unmistakable: Hillary Clinton is an incredibly weak candidate. The likelihood of an independent bid by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg got a big boost last night.

Looking Ahead: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will face each other in a debate tomorrow night. The next battle for the Democrat nomination will take place in Nevada on February 20th.

The next Republican debate is February 13th, followed by the South Carolina primary on February 20th.
Gary Bauer is a conservative family values advocate and serves as president of American Values and chairman of the Campaign for Working Families

Tags: Gary Bauer, Campaign for Working Families, New Hampshire, analysis of results, New Hampshire, 2016 Presidential Primary, republican candidates, democrat candidates To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
Posted by Bill Smith at 1:32 PM - Post Link


Post a Comment

<< Home

national debt
Don't miss anything!
Subscribe to the
ARRA News Service
It's FREE & No Ads!

You Receive One Email Each Morning
With Prior Days Articles / Toons / More

Also, Join us at:

Recent Posts:
Personal Tweets by the editor:
Dr. Bill - OzarkGuru
Married 48yr #Conservative #Constitution #NRALife #GunRights #USAF 22yr #military #veteran #Christian #CCOT #ProLife #TEAParty #GOP #TCOT #SGP #schoolchoice

Action Links!
Arkansas State Senators
AR State Representatives
Arkansas Governor Office
Arkansas Attorney General
Bankrupting America
US House of Representatives
US Senators
Family Research Council
Sunshine Review

Facebook Accts - Dr. Bill Smith
ARRA News Service
Arkansans Against Big Government
Alley-White Am. Legion #52
Baxter County Republicans, AR
Catholics & Protestants United Against Discrimination
End Taxpayer Funding of NPR
Overturn Roe V. Wade
Prolife Soldiers
Project Wildfire
Republican Liberty Caucus of Arkansas
The Gold Standard
Twin Lakes Republican Women
US Atty Gen Loretta Lynch, aka Eric Holder, Must Go
Veterans for Sarah Palin
Why Vote for Hillary (Satire)
FB Groups:
Arkansas For Sarah Palin
Arkansas Conservative Caucus
Arkansas County Tea Party
Arkansans' Discussion Group on National Issues
Blogs for Borders
Conservative Solutions
Conservative Voices
Defend Marriage -- Arkansas
FairTax Nation
Arkansas for FairTax
Friends of the TEA Party in Arkansas
Freedom Roundtable
Let's Mine AR Lignite NOW!
Personhood Initiative
Pro-Life Rocks - Arkansas
Republican Network
Republican Liberty Caucus of AR
Reject the U.N.


Links to ARRA News
A Patriotic Nurse
Agora Associates
a12iggymom's Blog
America, You Asked For It!
Americans for a Free Republic
America's Best Choice
America's Whatchtower
An Ol’ Broad’s Ramblings
AR Republican Assembly
ARRA Twitter
As A Matter of Fact
As The Crackerhead Crumbles
Baaad Media!
Baxter Co. GOP Assembly
Baxter County Republicans
Benton Co. GOP Assembly
Black & Right
Blogs For Borders
Blogs for Palin
Blow the Trumpet Ministry
Boot Berryism
Cap'n Bob & the Damsel
Chicago Ray Report
Chuck Baldwin - links
Citizen Pamphleteer
Common Cents
Conservative Hideout
Conservative Observer AZ
Conservative Voices
Conway Real Deal
Defeat Obama's Agenda
Diana's Corner
eGOP News
Florida Pundit
Franklin Online Outreach
Free Zone Media Center
For God and Liberty
Garland County Republicans
Greater Fitchburg For Life
Guns and Religion
Lasting Liberty Blog
Liberal Isn't Amy
Liberty's Lifeline
Maggie's Notebook
Marathon Pundit
Monkey in the Middle
NASA Satellites
No Runny Eggs
Okie Campaigns
Our Voices Arkansas
Patriot's Corner
Publius Forum
Randy's Roundtable
Real Debate Wisconsin
Religion and Morality
Right on Issues that Matter
Right Reason
Rocking on the Right Side
Saber Point
Saline Watchdog
Secure Arkansas
Sentry Journal
Stop Obama Satire & Cartoons
The Arkansas Patriot
The Audacity of Logic
The Blue Eye View
The Bobo Files
The Born Again Americans
TEA Party Cartoons
The Conservative Citizen
The Foxhole | Unapologetic Patriot
The Liberty Republican
The Lid
The Looking Spoon
The Maritime Sentry
The O Word
The Path to Tyranny Blog
The Real Polichick
Truth About Obamacare
Twitter @ARRA
Warning Signs
Women's Prayer & Action

Editor's Managed Twitter Accounts
Twitter Dr. Bill Smith @arra
Twitter Arkansas @GOPNetwork
Twitter @BootBerryism
Twitter @SovereignAllies
Twitter @FairTaxNation

Editor's Recommended Orgs
American Committment
American Enterprise Institute
American Family Business Institute
Americans for Limited Government
Americans for Prosperity
Americans for Tax Reform
American Security Council Fdn
AR Faith & Ethics Council
Arkansas Policy Foundation
Ayn Rand Institute
Bill of Rights Institute
Campaign for Working Families
Center for Individual Freedom
Center for Immigration Studies
Center for Just Society
Center for Freedom & Prosperity
Citizens Against Gov't Waste
Citizens in Charge Foundstion
Coalition for the Future American Worker
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Concerned Veterans for America
Concerned Women for America
Curtis Coleman Institute for Constitutional Policy
Declaration of Am. Renewal
Eagle Forum
Family Research Council
Family Security Matters
Franklin Center for Gov't & Public Integrity
Gingrich Productions
Global Incident Map
Great Americans
Gold Standard 2012 Project
Gun Owners of America (GOA)
David Horowitz Freedom Center
Institute For Justice
Institute for Truth in Accounting
Judicial Watch
Less Government
Media Reseach Center
National Center for Policy Analysis
National Right To Work Foundation
National Rifle Association (NRA)
National Rifle Association (NRA-ILA)
News Busters
O'Bluejacket's Patriotic Flicks
Open Secrets
Presidential Prayer Team
Religious Freedom Coalition
Renew America
Ron Paul Institute
State Policy Network
Tax Foundation
Tax Policy Center
The Club for Growth
The Federalist Today
The Gold Standard Now
The Heritage Foundation
The Leadership Institute
Union Facts

Blogs For Borders

Reject the United Nations

Adopt Our Troops in Prayer

Thousands of Deadly Islamic Terror Attacks Since 9/11

FairTax Nation on FaceBook
Friends of Israel
Blog Feeds
Syndicated - Get the ARRA News Service feed Syndicated!
ARRA Blog Feed

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Add to netvibes

Add to Bitty Brouser

Add to The Free Dictionary

Powered by Blogger

Politics Blogs
Politics blog

  • How To Exchange Links!
  • Comments by contributing authors or other sources do not necessarily reflect the position the editor, other contributing authors, sources, readers, or commenters. No contributors, or editors are paid for articles, images, cartoons, etc. While having reported on and promoting the beliefs associated with the ARRA, this blog/site is not controlled by nor funded by the ARRA. This site/blog does not advertise for money or services nor does it solicit funding for its support.
  • Fair Use: This site/blog may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available to advance understanding of political, human rights, economic, democracy, and social justice issues, etc. This constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as provided for in section Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107 of the US Copyright Law. Per said section, the material on this site/blog is distributed without profit to readers to view for the expressed purpose of viewing the included information for research, educational, or satirical purposes. Any person/entity seeking to use copyrighted material shared on this site/blog for purposes that go beyond "fair use," must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
  • © 2006 - 2016 ARRA News Service
Creative Commons License
Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.