Question: When Did SARS-CoV-2 Really Arrive Here?
. . . The CV19 "fear pandemic" modeling promoted by the media for the last eight weeks is wrong.
by Mark Alexander: As I noted this week in “The ‘War on Virus’ — What’s Our Exit Strategy?” formulating and implementing a way out of the current nationwide partial economic shutdown will be the most challenging policy decision of any presidential administration in decades.
One very significant question for the White House Coronavirus Task Force when evaluating an exit plan is the validity of the academic modeling, which leads to this question: When did the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variant causing COVID-19 disease enter the U.S.? Of this I am certain — it was not with the man who was diagnosed 21 January in Seattle after his trip to Wuhan, China. He most assuredly was not “patient zero,” despite being the first patient identified once we were alerted to CV19.
But if not him, then who?
Let me be clear: I believe nothing the communist Chinese regime is reporting about its handling of CV19. China claims it identified the first case on 17 November, but one can fairly assume there were many cases prior to that date that were either not identified or not disclosed. There is abundant evidence that the ChiComs attempted to conceal evidence of CV19 for much of November and December, until it notified the World Health Organization on 31 December.
How many Chinese traveled to the U.S. in November, December, and early January, before Donald Trump wisely banned such travel? Specifically, how many came from or had contact with people in Wuhan? According to immigration records, about 3.4 million Chinese enter the U.S. annually, which means that from the time the first China Virus cases were disclosed until the president’s travel ban, approximately 600,000 Chinese nationals entered our country. And this number doesn’t include the many Americans who traveled between China and the U.S. during that time, including the aforementioned Washington state patient diagnosed on 21 January.
In the months prior to that U.S. diagnosis, the number of people in transit between the U.S. and China who were exposed to and could have been carriers of SARS-CoV-2, including many Chinese students, may be as high as 5,000-15,000. Undoubtedly, the disease was here before the first official CV19 case in January, which is to say that many illnesses and deaths in the prior months that were attributed to influenza could have been due to CV19 disease. As I’ve noted previously, the current spike in cases and deaths is primarily a reflection of the large number of tests now being performed, not only an indication of the spread of CV19.
Why is pinpointing the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 into the U.S. so important? Because the Task Force must make decisions based on sound modeling. To avoid deep and prolonged economic harm, we should return to business as usual (excluding those at high risk) in the coming month. And if SARS-CoV-2 actually arrived here between mid-November and mid-January, then the modeling trajectory of its spread and fatality rate is significantly different than what has been projected and reported.
To that point, yesterday Task Force response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx made a remarkable disclosure. She condemned the “Viral Fear Pandemic” fomented by the mainstream media and, though she did not name them, the Democrat leaders who have disgracefully politicized that fear.
Regarding the breathless pandemic modeling that has been promoted by the media, Brix declared: “Models are models. When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.” She said the media should not assert “that when people need a hospital bed it’s not going to be there, or a ventilator it’s not going to be there [because] we don’t have evidence of that.” She added, “It’s our job collectively to assure the American people. There is no model right now [and] no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that.”
She referenced the “recent report out of the UK … that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.” She noted, “They’ve adjusted that number in the UK to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment. … The predictions of the model don’t match the reality.” That original UK report was widely promoted by the mainstream media.
(Visit our comprehensive China Virus Pandemic response and recovery page, and see our related pages.
--------------------
Mark Alexander is Executive Editor and Publisher of The Patriot Post.
Tags: Mark Alexander, The Patriot Post, Question, When Did SARS-CoV-2, Really Arrive Here To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
One very significant question for the White House Coronavirus Task Force when evaluating an exit plan is the validity of the academic modeling, which leads to this question: When did the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variant causing COVID-19 disease enter the U.S.? Of this I am certain — it was not with the man who was diagnosed 21 January in Seattle after his trip to Wuhan, China. He most assuredly was not “patient zero,” despite being the first patient identified once we were alerted to CV19.
But if not him, then who?
Let me be clear: I believe nothing the communist Chinese regime is reporting about its handling of CV19. China claims it identified the first case on 17 November, but one can fairly assume there were many cases prior to that date that were either not identified or not disclosed. There is abundant evidence that the ChiComs attempted to conceal evidence of CV19 for much of November and December, until it notified the World Health Organization on 31 December.
How many Chinese traveled to the U.S. in November, December, and early January, before Donald Trump wisely banned such travel? Specifically, how many came from or had contact with people in Wuhan? According to immigration records, about 3.4 million Chinese enter the U.S. annually, which means that from the time the first China Virus cases were disclosed until the president’s travel ban, approximately 600,000 Chinese nationals entered our country. And this number doesn’t include the many Americans who traveled between China and the U.S. during that time, including the aforementioned Washington state patient diagnosed on 21 January.
In the months prior to that U.S. diagnosis, the number of people in transit between the U.S. and China who were exposed to and could have been carriers of SARS-CoV-2, including many Chinese students, may be as high as 5,000-15,000. Undoubtedly, the disease was here before the first official CV19 case in January, which is to say that many illnesses and deaths in the prior months that were attributed to influenza could have been due to CV19 disease. As I’ve noted previously, the current spike in cases and deaths is primarily a reflection of the large number of tests now being performed, not only an indication of the spread of CV19.
Why is pinpointing the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 into the U.S. so important? Because the Task Force must make decisions based on sound modeling. To avoid deep and prolonged economic harm, we should return to business as usual (excluding those at high risk) in the coming month. And if SARS-CoV-2 actually arrived here between mid-November and mid-January, then the modeling trajectory of its spread and fatality rate is significantly different than what has been projected and reported.
To that point, yesterday Task Force response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx made a remarkable disclosure. She condemned the “Viral Fear Pandemic” fomented by the mainstream media and, though she did not name them, the Democrat leaders who have disgracefully politicized that fear.
Regarding the breathless pandemic modeling that has been promoted by the media, Brix declared: “Models are models. When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary, but we don’t have data that matches that based on our experience.” She said the media should not assert “that when people need a hospital bed it’s not going to be there, or a ventilator it’s not going to be there [because] we don’t have evidence of that.” She added, “It’s our job collectively to assure the American people. There is no model right now [and] no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that.”
She referenced the “recent report out of the UK … that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.” She noted, “They’ve adjusted that number in the UK to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment. … The predictions of the model don’t match the reality.” That original UK report was widely promoted by the mainstream media.
(Visit our comprehensive China Virus Pandemic response and recovery page, and see our related pages.
--------------------
Mark Alexander is Executive Editor and Publisher of The Patriot Post.
Tags: Mark Alexander, The Patriot Post, Question, When Did SARS-CoV-2, Really Arrive Here To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
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